Like it or not, Drew Lock will be the Broncos starting quarterback in 2021
Dec 17, 2020, 10:09 AM
Divisive issues are everywhere in 2020, with both sides of every argument firmly entrenched in their beliefs and opinions. Broncos Country is no exception.
In the Mile High City, it’s nearly impossible to find someone who doesn’t have strong thoughts about Drew Lock. Typically, those positions fall into one of two extremes.
There’s a group that believes the second-year quarterback is the future face of the franchise, someone who will don the orange and blue for a decade. The other thinks the former second-round pick is a bust, a player who will be nothing more than a journeyman backup in the NFL.
As with most things, the reality probably lies somewhere in the middle. But that hasn’t stopped the debate from raging.
Ultimately, the answer will be provided. The results on the field will eventually show which group was correct about Lock.
That body of evidence doesn’t exists at the moment, however. So everyone is left to predict the future, both short-term and long-term.
Whether or not Lock is a 10-year starter in Denver, someone who leads the team out of the current abyss and back to relevancy, is a question that will be answered over time. There are too many variables at play to determine that right now.
A more immediate topic can be tackled today, however. That’s because deciding which camp is right or wrong about Lock doesn’t impact the answer.
Who will be the Broncos starting quarterback in 2021?
Like it or not, there really isn’t a good option other than Lock. While saying “he’s the best the Broncos can do” might sound like settling, it’s also the reality. There isn’t another path that makes a lot of sense.
For starters, there is evidence to suggest that Lock can be the team’s QB of the future. His 4-1 finish to the 2019 campaign was encouraging. His comeback win this season against the Chargers was a sign that he has the coveted “it” factor. And his performance last week against the Panthers showed tremendous growth, as Lock executed the game plan to perfection and avoided costly mistakes.
So giving the quarterback a third season to prove his mettle, particularly one that promises to offer a normal offseason to work and improve, is a path that has merit. Regardless of what else was available, there’s an argument to be made for going down that road.
But even those who don’t buy into that plan have to admit that there really isn’t a better option available. One look at the QB landscape makes that painfully obvious.
There are two ways that the Broncos can replace Lock if they choose to go that direction. They can bring in a veteran, whether via trade or free agency, or they can draft a QB in April. Neither route looks particularly promising, however.
On the free agent front, there’s one name that jumps out. Dak Prescott would be very enticing, even coming off of a gruesome, season-ending leg injury. But after seeing how their season fell apart once they lost their quarterback, the Cowboys probably won’t let Prescott hit the open market.
That leaves a bunch of questionable options. Believe it or not, Mitchell Trubisky may be the most-intriguing QB available. He was once the No. 2 overall pick in the draft, so he certainly has talent. An argument can be made that Trubisky simply needs a change of scenery. Maybe a fresh start can resurrect his career?
But is that a better bet than Lock improving from year two to year three. Anyone who has watched Chicago with Trubisky behind center would have a hard time believe that to be the case.
Beyond the soon-to-be former Bear, a bunch of QBs north of 30 years old will be available. That list includes Andy Dalton, Ryan Fitzpatrick, A.J. McCarron, Colt McCoy, Cam Newton and Tyrod Taylor.
A case can be made that the Broncos would be better in 2021 with these veterans at the helm instead of Lock. But how much better? Maybe they win 10 games. Perhaps they sneak into the playoffs as the sixth or seventh seed. But is that really the goal? Is that path leading anywhere in the future?
If the objective is to build a Super Bowl contender, which should always be the mindset of a franchise, then going with a journeyman veteran makes no sense. The ceiling is too low.
That leaves the other option – drafting a quarterback. Given how the Broncos are currently constructed, with a lot of young talent on offense, that isn’t a terrible idea. It would allow Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, K.J. Hamler, Noah Fant and the new QB to all grow together, hopefully blossoming in two or three years into a juggernaut.
But in order for that plan to work, Denver would have to find the right quarterback in the draft. Normally, that would require them to have a top-five pick. Given that they’ve already won five games, that seems unlikely; the Broncos will probably be selecting somewhere between No. 10 and 15.
That doesn’t mean they can’t find a quarterback in the first round. After all, the Chiefs took Patrick Mahomes with the 10th-overall selection. But the later in the draft a QB is selected, the chances of greatness decrease.
By that point in the draft, the top two QB prospects – Trevor Lawrence (Clemson) and Justin Fields (Ohio State) – will be off the board. That leaves the likes of Zach Wilson (BYU), Trey Lance (North Dakota State) and Mac Jones (Alabama).
Maybe someone from that second-tier will wind up better than Lock, but there certainly isn’t any guarantee. It’s far from a sure thing, so the Broncos are probably better off trying to work with a known commodity; at least they know what they have in Lock.
That leaves one final avenue for Denver. They could pursue a blockbuster trade, packaging multiple picks for a quarterback who is looking for a fresh start with a new team.
If the Jets take Lawrence with the No. 1 overall pick, they’ll probably be looking to move on from Sam Darnold. The Broncos liked the QB when he was coming out of USC in 2018, but they couldn’t pull off a deal to get the third-overall pick in order to take him.
With one year left on his deal, Darnold would be a fairly low-risk acquisition. His base salary and roster bonus are roughly $4.7 million in 2021. If it didn’t work out, the Broncos could move on after the season.
Is Darnold better than Lock, however? He certainly was more highly touted coming out of college, but he hasn’t been great in the pros. In three seasons with the Jets, he’s completed less than 60 percent of his passes, while throwing 41 touchdowns and 37 interceptions. That sounds a lot like Lock.
There’s a chance that Matthew Stafford becomes available this offseason. Depending on what the new general manager and head coach want to do in Detroit, there’s a possibility that the veteran becomes trade bait. But at what cost?
Stafford will earn $20 million next season and $23 million in 2022. That’s a big financial commitment.
In addition, it will probably take multiple high draft picks to acquire the quarterback. For a team trying to rebuild, giving up draft capital is a risky proposition.
Add it all up and what does it mean? A surefire upgrade isn’t going to available this offseason.
So unless Drew Lock is abysmal during the final three games of the 2020 season, proving that he’s not capable of being a reliable starting quarterback in the NFL, he’ll most likely be back in 2021. He’s the Broncos best option.
