Should the Broncos have drafted Josh Allen instead of Bradley Chubb?
Dec 17, 2020, 6:31 AM
There has been plenty of talk on 104.3 The Fan about what the Broncos should have done in the 2018 NFL Draft. Did Denver make the correct decision by drafting pass rusher Bradley Chubb? Or should they have drafted quarterback Josh Allen?
Entering the 2018 NFL Draft, the Broncos had signed veteran quarterback Case Keenum to a multi-year contract after he had a breakout year with the Vikings the year before. With Denver owning the fifth-overall pick and five potential quarterbacks going in the first-round that year, it still made sense for the Broncos to draft a quarterback. Denver could have drafted a quarterback and sat him for possibly a year and allow him to learn under Keenum or even compete with Keenum.
During the offseason, the Broncos were named one of the two teams that would coach at the Senior Bowl. Denver would get to see potential first-round quarterbacks up close. The Broncos had asked to have Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield on their team. Denver was also rewarded Wyoming gunslinger Josh Allen.
In the Senior Bowl, Allen would finish with 158 passing yards and two touchdowns. Allen also ran for 19 yards.
Denver didn’t seem too be invested into Allen and it showed during draft night. The Bills, on the other hand, had fallen in love with Allen.
Both Denver and Buffalo knew they needed to give their newly hired head coaches a franchise quarterback.
Denver had hired Vance Joseph and was forced to start three different quarterbacks in Trevor Siemian, Brock Osweiler and Paxton Lynch. This led the Broncos to a 5-11 record in 2017.
In the same season, Sean McDermott used Tyrod Taylor and Nathan Peterman to finish the season with a 9-7 record. Buffalo would then fall to Blake Bortles and the Jaguars in the wild card round of the playoffs.
Bills general manager Brandon Beane realized that Taylor was not the answer since he was only able to get the Buffalo offense to score three points in the playoff loss to Jacksonville. Beane knew he needed to find a franchise quarterback. Buffalo would then trade Taylor to Cleveland for a third-round pick.
While watching and meeting with Allen at the Senior Bowl, Beane and his crew had fallen in love with Allen and knew they were going to have a hard time drafting him in the situation they were in sitting in.
Buffalo held the 21st and 22nd overall picks after they traded back with the Chiefs a year earlier. Kansas City would use that pick to draft Patrick Mahomes.
Beane knew the Bills had to move up in the first round because there was no way Allen would make it to them at 21. The second-year general manager would package the 21st pick and their left tackle Cordy Glenn to the Bengals for the 12th-overall pick.
The Broncos and Bills also had a deal in place to swap picks if Denver’s guy wasn’t there with the fifth-overall pick. During draft night, it had been reported from Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network that Denver was trying to make a trade with the Jets for the third-overall pick. Denver was wanting to draft USC quarterback Sam Darnold. The deal wouldn’t get done and John Elway was ready to make the trade with Beane.
Then the unthinkable happened for the Broncos. Bradley Chubb had fallen to the fifth-overall pick after the Browns had passed on him. Denver was so excited that they called Buffalo back and said the deal was off the table.
After Denver had drafted Chubb, Elway mentioned that in all of their pre-draft mock draft simulations, Chubb had never gotten to them at five. This meant that Denver would be passing on a quarterback.
Sure, the Broncos found a great player in Chubb and will likely be a Pro Bowler at some point. But the value of Chubb is nowhere near the same value as grabbing a franchise quarterback in Allen.
With the Colts sitting right behind Denver, Indianapolis would select guard Quenton Nelson. The Bills knew they needed to find a trade partner to get ahead of the Cardinals with the 10th pick because they were also in the quarterback market.
Buffalo would then go all in and trade a pair of second-round picks and their 12th overall pick to the Buccaneers for the seventh-overall pick, where they would select Allen.
Allen, of course, struggled in his rookie season and began to develop in his second season while getting his team to the playoffs. Beane also knew that once he got his franchise passer, it was time to build around him.
The Bills would then give Allen some weapons through free agency by getting Cole Beasley, speedster John Brown and specialist Isaiah McKenzie. Beane would also trade for Stefon Diggs who has gone over the 1,000-yard mark for three straight seasons now. Beane has also built an above average defense for his head coach.
In 2018, both the Broncos and Bills were in very similar situations with the need of getting a franchise quarterback to get them back to the playoffs. One team found the quarterback they were in love with and went all-in and made multiple trades to move up and get him. The other team decided that building on the defense was more valuable than finding a franchise quarterback.
Since that draft, Buffalo owns a 26-19 record and on their way to their second playoff berth in back-to-back years, while Denver has a 18-27 record and no playoff appearances. Denver has also had six quarterbacks start a game in the span while also using a wide receiver to start a game.
Josh Allen is having an MVP-type season, while Denver has yet to have a defense crack the top 10 in scoring with Chubb rushing the passer.
It’s safe to say that Denver should have gone all-in and drafted Allen with the fifth-overall pick. Now, the Broncos are praying that their former second-round quarterback, Drew Lock, can be the savior.
If Lock doesn’t pan out, it could send the franchise back another two years and they’ll be looking for their franchise passer. Meanwhile, Allen will be leading his Bills to the playoffs each season for the rest of his career.
