History suggests that the Broncos can’t get discouraged by a slow start

A few weeks back, John Elway was honest when he spoke about early expectations for the Broncos offense in 2020. He said, “I don’t think we can expect with no offseason for us to be coming out and hitting on all cylinders.”

Some were startled by Elway “lowering the bar,” and even critical of the general manager’s assessment. Elway shouldn’t be criticized for this comment because he was speaking the truth.

Last Saturday, the Broncos held a stadium practice. For many of us, it was our first glimpse at the 2020 Broncos. What happened was the defense dominated the offense. A lot of people were taken back by the struggles of the offense. I’m not sure why anybody was surprised considering Elway basically told us this is what would happen.

This is exactly what we should have expected. There have been zero offseason activities, Drew Lock has only started five games at quarterback and there is a new offensive scheme being implemented. The Broncos will struggle to win games early in the season, but that doesn’t mean they’ll struggle to win games late in the season.

Elway is being patient because he has seen this before. Lock is the beginning of a new era for the Broncos.

In 2011, Elway returned to the Broncos and was leading a new era. What started out as bad, turned out to be the beginning of a five-year run of amazing success for the Broncos.

The 2011 NFL offseason was non-existent as the players and owners were engaged in a lockout. There were no OTAs and players were unable to meet with coaches. The lockout ended just prior to training camp. Rookies were literally signing their contracts and then heading out to their first practice on the same day.

John Fox was the new head coach and was having to get to know his players in training camp. Mike McCoy was retained by Fox as the Broncos offensive coordinator, having held the position the previous two seasons. They had some carry over, but generally the team was brand new.

The end of the 2010 season provided hope for the future, as rookie Tim Tebow showed some flash that he could potentially be the future of the Broncos. Combined with the addition of rookie Von Miller and the well-respected Fox as head coach, Broncos fans had reason to believe there was optimism the team was headed in the right direction.

Early on, that optimism seemed vanish. The Broncos opened the 2011 season on “Monday Night Football” against the Raiders. Oakland was a physically tough team and beat up on the Broncos in that game. The Broncos lost the game 23-20 in a rainy game where they made a multitude of mistakes (such as Kyle Orton just dropping the ball without being touched).

They weren’t ready to win the close game.

The Broncos started the season 1-4. In the second half of that fourth loss, the Broncos benched Orton in favor of Tebow. Tebow won his first start the following week at Miami against the Dolphins. But the next week, the Broncos were beaten down by Detroit Lions 45-10 and were staring at a 2-5 record.

From there, the Broncos coaching staff changed the offense to one that better suited Tebow. Everybody remembers the incredible six-game winning streak that followed. The Broncos would follow that win streak with three straight losses and finish the season 8-8. They managed to make the playoffs and won wild card weekend against the Steelers in spectacular fashion.

Much of that season and the six-game win streak is attributed to Tebow. The reality is, it was the entire team.

The defense was outstanding during that run creating timely turnovers. D.J. Williams had a strip sack in overtime against the Dolphins that led to the game-winning field goal. Andre Goodman had key interceptions against the Jets and Vikings that played major roles in the Broncos winning both of those games.

The victory against the Bears is remembered for Marion Barber being forced out of bounds and stopping the clock late in regulation. What’s never talked about is Wesley Woodyard forcing Barber to fumble in overtime and giving the Broncos decent field position for Matt Prater to kick the game-winning field goal. The defense rose to the occasion time and time again to keep the Broncos win streak going.

As the season moved along, second-year wide receivers Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker began to contribute more on offense. Veteran running back Willis McGahee, who was signed as free agent before the season, punished opponents running the ball.

The Broncos found success in 2011 because they didn’t get discouraged after a slow start and they weren’t mentally defeated following a three-game losing streak to end the season. They always found a way to bounce back.

The 2020 Broncos should look to the 2011 Broncos if the season gets off to a rocky start. This team had no offseason and even worse, they have no preseason. The offense is young and will be learning as they go. The talent is there, and given time, they can begin to develop a rhythm.

Melvin Gordon, like McGahee, was a free-agent acquisition that will bring a veteran presence to an otherwise young Broncos offense. Gordon can serve the reliable role just as McGahee did in 2011. Tebow got the credit, DT was the star in the making, but McGahee remained reliable when the younger talent was still developing.

As a quarterback, Lock is light years ahead of Tebow, but they do share some things in common. Both Lock and Tebow are fiery leaders. While not as egregiously bad as Tebow’s fundamentals, Lock has faced criticisms on his mechanics. The biggest quality Lock and Tebow share is that once they are on the field they are super competitive and they lead their teams. Lock has received praise from his teammates, if the 2011 Broncos can learn to believe in Tebow when he couldn’t even throw a pass, this team can get behind Lock.

All eyes will be on Lock, but the Broncos defense will be what drives this team to victories. The 2019 Broncos defense fell flat late in games against Bears, Jaguars, Colts and Vikings. That’s four games the Broncos could have easily won last season. For the 2020 season, this defense will need to mirror the 2011 defense.

This Broncos defense can’t collapse late in games and they must create turnovers. The statistics of the 2011 defense are irrelevant because all you had to do was watch them to see that they were very effective. The 2019 defense may have finished in the top 10, but you have to look that up to convince yourself they were good. The Broncos defense was ineffective last season. That must change in 2020. Considering how they’ve looked in training camp, a legitimate top-five defense is a reasonable expectation.

The most pressure will be on Vic Fangio and Pat Shurmur. Say what you will about Fox and McCoy, but in 2011, they were phenomenal. Fox had the Broncos defense playing dominant and McCoy had developed the best rushing attack in the NFL with a quarterback that couldn’t throw. Beyond the X’s and O’s, Fox kept the team calm. The slow start didn’t derail the season. The players believed in the coaches and it showed all the way through the playoffs.

A 1-4 or 2-5 start for the Broncos is entirely possible. If that happens, nobody should panic.

The offense needs time to develop chemistry and it is completely fair to ask for patience. If Fangio and Shurmur can keep the players on track they could finish 8-8 or 9-7. Neither of those records sound particularly exciting, but there is a seventh playoff seed starting this season. The Broncos could get hot late and sneak into the playoffs.

As we saw in 2011, once you’re in the playoffs, anything can happen. The Broncos have the talent to win games, they just need to weather the early storm. The 2011 Broncos had a brutal start to the season, and it ended with a top-five most memorable moment in team history.