The Broncos have made moves after moves this offseason to add weapons to the offense. This has made Broncos Country incredibly excited about what this offense could be in 2020. Fans of the Broncos had to sit through a poor offense last year that scored just 17 points per game. This year, the Broncos could score around 24 points per game – a difference of a touchdown per game from the previous season.
Only 12 teams in the NFL scored 24 or more points in 2019. For the Broncos to make that jump into the 24-PPG club, the new pieces on offense will have to play at a high level. This would be good news for Broncos fans, but it would also be good news for fantasy football GMs.
With fantasy football drafts going on right now (yes, this early), it’s interesting to note how the fantasy community is looking at the 2020 Broncos. In this series, we’ll look at the current ADP (average draft position) in 12-team PPR leagues for the Broncos offensive players at Footballguys.com. For those of you that don’t know, I have worked for Footballguys.com since 2005 and it’s where you can find all my fantasy football opinions.
Today, we look at Broncos wide receiver Jerry Jeudy. Where is he going in drafts, and what is the reasoning behind his ADP?
Jerry Jeudy | WR38 | 8.09
NFL fans, and Broncos fans specifically, were super excited when the Broncos selected Alabama wide receiver Jerry Jeudy in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft. Jeudy was arguably the best receiver in the best receiving class in NFL history. He was certainly my top-rated receiver this year, largely due to his route-running ability and athleticism.
There is no way I thought Jeudy could fall to the Broncos initially, but as we got closer to the draft things were stacking up where the potential superstar could be in range of the Broncos. The team added him and now he joins with second-year pro Drew Lock to get this offense on the right track. Add in new offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur, and you can see a clear emphasis of the Broncos to be more explosive on that side of the ball.
Jeudy is currently going off the board as the No. 38 fantasy wide receiver near the end of the eighth round (ninth pick) in 12-team PPR leagues. He’s going right behind guys like Diontae Johnson (Steelers) and Julian Edelman (Patriots) and right in front of former Broncos wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders (Saints) and a player who made plays last year for Shurmur in Darius Slayton (Giants).
The hype for Jeudy does not match his current draft status. As we get closer to the regular season, expect the rookie to be selected even higher. Fantasy GMs see him as a WR4 or low-end WR3 with upside at this time. If he makes plays in practice or the preseason, then we could see Jeudy selected as a WR3 with upside. In fact, if Jeudy was selected as a low-end WR2 or strong flex play in August based on what he does in training camp, it wouldn’t surprise me.
Last Year’s Comparison
In 2019, the No. 38 fantasy player at the position was Chris Conley from the Jaguars. Last year, Conley used his speed to earn 91 targets, converting 47 of those into receptions for 775 receiving yards and five touchdowns. Conley has bounced around the league a little bit during his pro career, with the Jaguars being his second stop in just a few years. He’s a pure speed receiver who can track the ball down the field, but he is nowhere near the complete receiver that Jeudy is.
It’s not a problem to project Jeudy to get more than 50 catches as a rookie. In fact, he could catch 60-70 passes this year for nearly 1,000 yards with let’s say around 5-7 touchdowns. Those numbers would far surpass what Conley was able to do last year for the Jaguars.
Right now, fantasy GMs consider Jeudy to be a WR4 with upside. He at least is being looked at as a deep flex play with upside in 2020. Looking at his skill set and what the Broncos offense could be, there is a chance that the rookie finishes as a top-30 fantasy receiver.
Overvalued or Undervalued?
There is a lot of hype around the Broncos passing game this offseason, so what kind of numbers are realistic to project for Jeudy in his rookie season? Let’s say the Broncos offense takes strides in 2020 – not huge strides, but clear improvement from last year. If that’s the case, then Jeudy could be one of the best value players for fantasy GMs in 2020.
In 2019 under Shurmur, Slayton worked as the No. 2 or No. 1 receiver for the Giants as both Sterling Shepard and Golden Tate missed time due to injury. A rookie fifth-round pick out of Auburn, Slayton caught 48 passes for 740 yards and a whopping eight touchdowns. No offense to Slayton’s game, but Jeudy is a much better receiver with a much better skill set.
The touchdown total from Slatyon in 2019 may be difficult to duplicate, but the catches certainly should be outdone by Jeudy – and the yardage, as well.
He’s going to go off the board much sooner than his current ADP in Denver, as all Broncos generally do, but perhaps Denver fans are on to something. All fantasy GMs should be considering Jeudy sooner rather than later in their fantasy drafts.
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