A last-ditch effort to convince the Broncos not to take a WR at 15
Apr 21, 2020, 6:31 AM
While I’m mentally getting myself to that spot where I’m preparing for and accepting the fact the Broncos are likely to pick a receiver with the 15th overall pick in the NFL Draft, or even move up to select one, I’m going to take one final shot to convince everyone that would be a bad idea.
Let’s start with facts. This comes directly from Peter King’s outstanding weekly FMIA article:
In the past four drafts, teams have picked 11 wide receivers in the first round and 19 in the second round. The production of the second-round picks, clearly and without ambiguity, has been superior to the first-rounders. I totaled the 30 combined seasons of the first-round receivers and plotted the average season, and then did the same with the 40 combined seasons of second-round wideouts. The numbers:
Average season of first-round WRs, 2016-19: 32.8 receptions, 450.1 yards, 13.7 yards per catch
Average season of second-round WRs, 2016-19: 52.8 receptions, 681.8 yards, 12.9 yards per catch
I have a theory about why the lesser picks have been better. But first, further proof of the superiority of the second-round picks. Eleven receivers drafted either in the first or second round since 2016 have averaged 50 receptions or more per season as pros. Nine were drafted in round two.
I went back even further. From 2012 to now, there have been 29 wide receivers taken in the first round. I graded generously and still only found five above-average receivers. Deandre Hopkins, Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Jr., Amari Cooper and Brandin Cooks. Everyone else was average to below average.
Look them up and disagree if you’d like. I have a hard time believing you’ll find any other first rounders in the “above average category.” Five out of 29. That’s awful.
By the way, the only above average receiver who’s still with his original team is Evans. More by the way, none of these above average receivers have ever won a Super Bowl. Cooks is the only one to have played in a Super Bowl and he’s currently on his fourth team in seven years.
During that same stretch from 2012 to now, here’s a list of the receivers all drafted outside the first round who fit favorably in the solid to above-average category: Davante Adams, Michael Thomas, Robert Woods, Keenan Allen, T.Y. Hilton, Chris Godwin, Cooper Kupp, Kenny Golladay, JuJu Smith Schuster, Jarvis Landry, Allen Robinson, Tyler Lockett, Alshon Jeffery, Courtland Sutton, Deebo Samuel and D.K. Metcalf.
Let’s talk more about the importance of wide receivers when it comes to winning Super Bowls. This great bit of research was done by the Fan’s own Kevin Kissner. Here you go:
There have only been two wide receivers in the history of the NFL to lead the league in receiving and win the Super Bowl in the same year: Jerry Rice and Drew Pearson. Rice did it twice in his career and Pearson only did it once. Since the year 2000, only three wide receivers have finished the season in the top five in receiving yards and won the Super Bowl. Those wide receivers: Victor Cruz, Greg Jennings and Marvin Harrison.
I’m going to give you the rest of the No. 1 receiving leaders from the Super Bowl winning teams since the year 2000 and where they ranked in receiving yards that year starting with the most recent Super Bowl Champion.
2019: Tyreek Hill – 36th
2018: Julian Edelman – 28th
2017: Alshon Jeffery – 34th
2016: Julian Edelman – 13th
2015: Demaryius Thomas – 7th
2014: Julian Edelman – 25th
2013: Golden Tate – 31st
2012: Anquan Boldin – 27th
2011: Victor Cruz – 3rd
2010: Greg Jennings – 4th
2009: Marques Colston – 18th
2008: Hines Ward – 15th
2007: Plaxico Burress – 21st
2006: Marvin Harrison – 2nd
2005: Hines Ward – 22nd
2004: David Givens – 32nd
2003: Deion Branch – 32nd
2002: Keyshawn Johnson – 16th
2001: Troy Brown – 10th
2000: Qadry Ismail – 12th
Let’s keep going. I often hear the argument the Broncos need two No. 1 wide receivers. Okay, I’ll assume you agree the definition of a No. 1 receiver is someone who has a 1,000-yard plus. I think that’s a fair standard to set. Last year, there were four teams who had two No. 1 receivers. Four teams that had two receivers each over a 1,000 yards.
• Tampa Bay (Mike Evans 1,157 yards / Chris Godwin 1,333)
• Dallas (Amari Cooper 1,189 yards / Michael Gallup 1,107)
• L.A. Rams (Cooper Kupp 1,161 yards / Robert Woods 1,134)
• L.A. Chargers (Keenan Allen 1,199 yards / Mike Williams 1,001)
Interesting factoid here. The breakdown of these eight WRs: Three first rounders, one second rounder, four third rounders.
The other giant takeaway? Four teams had two No. 1 wide receivers and none of those teams made the playoffs.
I’m not arguing the Broncos need to beef up their receiving core. But, I think they’re starting from a great spot with already two potential No. 1 quality pass catchers in Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant. Sure, go out and draft one or two receivers in rounds two through four. I’m fine with that.
However, drafting a receiver at No. 15 when I’ve presented all this evidence would be foolish considering this is a team that in the next year or two will have huge holes to fill at OT, DL, CB and LB. Hope you find this convincing.
