Should the Broncos Pay or Pass in 2020 – Linebacker Corey Nelson?
Feb 4, 2020, 6:45 AM
The Broncos have a lot of interesting decisions to make this offseason in regards to free agency. Before they decide on which ones to target from other teams, Denver must first look at its own players who are set to hit the open market.
Heading into the offseason, the Broncos have 14 players who are scheduled to be unrestricted free agents in 2020. At the end-of-season press conference, Broncos general manager John Elway said the Broncos are going to wait a month before they start evaluating their own players.
“That gives us more time to do it the right way. Rather than doing it on a personal side, because the coaches get connected with (players). I think you get a better objective view when you get away and you’re able to go back and look at it individually,” Elway said.
In the meantime, let’s take a tour through the list of players the Broncos need to make a decision about. During the next few weeks, I’ll take an in-depth look at Denver’s pending free agents, answering a simple question: Should the Broncos pay to keep them or take a pass, letting them head into free agency.
Next up…
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COREY NELSON
Inside Linebacker
The Broncos selected inside linebacker Corey Nelson in the seventh round of the 2014 NFL Draft out of Oklahoma. They received the pick that became Nelson in the trade with the 49ers that allowed them to move up in the second round of that draft for wide receiver Cody Latimer.
Before the draft, Nelson was considered a late-round sleeper by some in the scouting community. He fell in the draft due to pectoral surgery that caused him to miss some time in the pre-draft process. Nelson was able to perform in the Sooners pro day that year and put up some explosive numbers.
On film, Nelson was a player who could find the ball quickly. During his college career with the Sooners, Nelson had 10 pass breakups and played with a high football intelligence. He was added by the Broncos as an intriguing developmental prospect and a potential backup to then-starter Danny Trevathan.
As a rookie, Nelson didn’t do much for the Broncos. In fact, during his first two seasons, Nelson didn’t get on the field that much other than special teams. He had 23 tackles during those first two years, but in 2016 Nelson got his chance to do more.
In that season, Nelson started five games for the Broncos and played a career-high 546 snaps. Nelson posted a career-high 61 tackles in 2016 and seemed to be showing that he was developing into the starter the Broncos thought he might be when they selected him a couple of years prior.
In 2017, a new coaching staff led by Vance Joseph took over and Nelson did not start a single game. In fact, he only appeared in five games and played just 44 snaps. That was the final year of his rookie contract, and after that Nelson chose to move on.
He ended up signing with the Eagles in 2018, in large part because he felt that a starting job was within his reach. He turned down the Broncos offer to stay with a new deal and was off to Philadelphia. Instead of winning a starting job in training camp, Nelson failed to make the 53-man roster and found himself without a team.
That year, Nelson bounced had a brief stint with the Falcons. He then signed a futures contract with the Buccaneers in January of 2019. Nelson did not make the Bucs 53-man roster, but received a call from the linebacker-needy Broncos.
In 2019, Nelson actually started two games for the Broncos and played 111 snaps on defense. He was primarily added by the Broncos to play on special teams, and that’s what Nelson did. A seasoned veteran now, is Nelson best suited as linebacker depth or can the Broncos make another move to find a player equal to Nelson or better?
Should the Broncos pay or pass? Let’s take a look.
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Positives
His athleticism and nose for the ball might be Nelson’s best asset. Nelson can fly to the ball and has no problem diagnosing plays as they unfold in front of him. He’s a smart player who works hard with a team-first mentality.
Nelson is known as a good leader and will do what it takes to see the field. He’s a teacher to younger players and is willing to give his knowledge to younger players to help make them better.
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Negatives
Nelson is undersized to take on larger running backs. He is a willing tackler, but he is not a “thumper” as an inside linebacker and does not stop a back in his tracks. Larger blockers tend to stick to Nelson if they get their hands on him. He too often will try and run around blockers instead of taking them on and running through them.
He is pretty much only a special teams player. Nelson had upside when he was first coming out of college, but at this point in his career none of that developmental potential remains.
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The Market
In 2018, Nelson decided to hit the open market and leave the Broncos for a chance at a starting job or at least a larger role with the Eagles. At that time, Nelson was only able to get a one-year, $1.6 million deal with $600,000 in guarantees. He didn’t make the team so only saw his guaranteed money from that contract.
When Nelson came back to the Broncos in 2019, he signed a one-year, $805,000 contract with zero in guarantees. That’s roughly what it would take to keep Nelson on the team. Any sort of deal worked out will not have much if any guaranteed money and the commitment would likely only be a year or two at best.
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The Verdict
The Broncos need help at the inside linebacker position. In addition to finding an upgrade in the starting lineup, the team needs better depth at the position too. Nelson is not an option to start for the Broncos, but he could be considered for veteran depth at inside linebacker.
However, in my opinion, the Broncos can pass on Nelson.
Football is a young man’s game. Unfortunately for Nelson, he has not done enough to stand out on defense in order to get much consideration. It sounds cold but the reality is that players like Nelson are coming to the NFL as late-round picks every year. Simply put, the Broncos don’t need to pay Nelson a veteran rate – no matter how inexpensive – because they can just draft a player late (or add an undrafted free agent) with a similar skill set.
