Mahomes isn’t likely to have a Brady-like dominance of the AFC West
Feb 4, 2020, 11:25 AM
Given the way Patrick Mahomes has played during his first two seasons as the Chiefs starting quarterback, there’s plenty of reason for the Broncos, as well as every other team in the AFC West, to be concerned about the future. It’s setting up to be a 10- to 15-year run in which Mahomes dominates the division.
During the last two years, Kansas City’s quarterback is 23-7 during the regular season, has led the Chiefs to back-to-back AFC West titles and two conference championship games, and just won the Super Bowl on Sunday. He’s also won a league MVP award, as well as Most Valuable Player honors in the Super Bowl.
That’s an impressive resume for anyone. For someone who is only 24 years old, it’s downright scary.
As a result, many people are projecting that Mahomes will control the AFC West for the next decade-plus in much the same way Tom Brady has run roughshod over the AFC East for the better part of the millennium.
It’s a reasonable concern. Mahomes is that good of a player. But it’s also a bit hyperbolic.
After all, the Patriots mastery over their division is only due in part to their quarterback, head coach and the way New England does business. There are three other major factors, as well.
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Since Tom Brady took over as the team’s starter early in the 2001 season, the Patriots have dominated the AFC East. In that time, they’ve won 17 division titles, nine AFC crowns and six Lombardi Trophies. That’s just silly.
But is that type of supremacy just because of the quarterback? On the surface, it certainly seems to be the case. After all, Brady is one of only two common denominators through this period, with head coach Bill Belichick being the other. But one of the two seasons in which another team won the AFC East – 2008, when the Dolphins went 11-5 and captured the crown – Brady was injured during Week 1 and missed the rest of the season.
That means that during the 18 seasons in which Brady has started the majority of the games for the Patriots, they’ve won the AFC East a whopping 17 times. That’s a ridiculous .944 clip.
It’s an impressive run, but it’s not entirely due to New England’s greatness. It’s also due to the ineptitude put forth by the rest of the division. For the past 20 years, Buffalo, Miami and New York have all been dumpster fires.
Combined, the three other franchises have cycled through 24 head coaches during the Brady era. The Dolphins have had 10, the Bills have tried nine and the Jets have run through five.
But those revolving doors are nothing compared to what each team has done at quarterback. Each franchise has been searching for the right signal caller for seemingly the entire millennium.
Since Brady took over as the starter with the Patriots, the other three franchises in the division has rolled out 54 different quarterbacks. Fifty-four! Miami has trotted out 20, Buffalo has had 18 and New York has gone with 16.
That type of turnover is going to lead to a team being bad. Not having a quarterback is a recipe for disaster in the NFL, making it almost impossible to win consistently. For two decades, all three of these teams have been desperately searching for an answer at that position.
When they’ve had someone who was even remotely competent, giving them some stability at the position, the Patriots suddenly had some competition. No one would ever mistake Mark Sanchez for a franchise quarterback, but during his three-plus years as the Jets starter, he made things interesting in the AFC East.
While New York never knocked New England off of their perch atop the division standings, they did beat them in the playoffs. In Foxborough, Sanchez dealt Brady and Company a 28-21 loss in the Divisional Playoffs following the 2011 season.
Does having Tom Brady on the roster make the Patriots a contender every season? Without a doubt. But the fact that every other team in the division has been mostly inept at the exact same time is why New England has dominated the AFC East every year.
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A better comparison for the Broncos to look at is the way Aaron Rodgers has controlled the NFC North since taking over for as the full-time starter with the Packers in 2008. In the 12 seasons since, he’s clearly been the best quarterback in the division. And he makes Green Bay a contender, both for the NFC North title and a run at the Super Bowl, every season.
But it’s far from a foregone conclusion that the Packers are going to with the North every season. In fact, Rodgers has led Green Bay to the division crown in six out of his 12 seasons. While still an impressive clip, it’s far from the dominance that Brady has racked up in New England.
Why? In part, it’s because Chicago and Minnesota haven’t been completely inept during this time period. Detroit has been, struggling to build around Matthew Stafford. But the other two organizations in the division have been competent, finding ways to compete on a yearly basis.
At the same time, neither the Bears or the Vikings have been able to find a franchise quarterback. Chicago tried by trading for Jay Cutler and drafting Mitchell Trubisky. Minnesota threw money at the problem, hoping Kirk Cousins would be the answer.
So even without another franchise quarterback in the division, a future Hall of Fame quarterback like Rodgers doesn’t win the division every season. Yes, his team is in the conversation every year. But it’s not impossible for another franchise to breakthrough.
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Will Mahomes dominate the AFC West in a Brady-like fashion into the 2030s? Maybe. But that’ll have more to do with mistakes made by the Broncos, Chargers and Raiders than it will what the Chiefs and their quarterback do.
Right now, Vic Fangio, Anthony Lynn and Jon Gruden are at the helm of Kansas City’s three main rivals. How long will they remain in place? Fangio still has a lot to prove. Lynn is heading into a critical season. And Gruden seems solid, given the 10-year contract he signed just two years ago.
So there could be some turnover in the coaching ranks. By no means does the AFC West currently boast a bunch of great head coaches.
The same can be said about the division’s quarterbacks. Drew Lock looks promising, but he’s only started five games in Denver. Las Vegas appears ready to move on from Derek Carr. And Los Angeles reportedly has already decided to turn the page on the Philip Rivers era.
So there are definitely some holes to fill at the most-important position in football. Right now, Kansas City clearly has a leg up at quarterback, and it’s not even close.
But if the Broncos want to avoid watching Mahomes and the Chiefs dominate the AFC West for the foreseeable future, they first need to tend to their own house. They need to make sure Fangio is the right guy at the helm. And they need to determine if Lock is a franchise QB. If they are, Denver can compete. If they aren’t, they need to quickly rectify the situation.
Will Kansas City be the best of the West? Probably in the near future. But how long that dominance continues will have just as much to do with what happens in Denver, Las Vegas and Los Angeles as anything else.
