Should the Broncos Pay or Pass in 2020 – Defensive end Derek Wolfe?
Jan 30, 2020, 6:50 AM
The Broncos have a lot of interesting decisions to make this offseason in regards to free agency. Before they decide on which ones to target from other teams, Denver must first look at its own players who are set to hit the open market.
Heading into the offseason, the Broncos have 14 players who are scheduled to be unrestricted free agents in 2020. At the end-of-season press conference, Broncos general manager John Elway said the Broncos are going to wait a month before they start evaluating their own players.
“That gives us more time to do it the right way. Rather than doing it on a personal side, because the coaches get connected with (players). I think you get a better objective view when you get away and you’re able to go back and look at it individually,” Elway said.
In the meantime, let’s take a tour through the list of players the Broncos need to make a decision about. During the next few weeks, I’ll take an in-depth look at Denver’s pending free agents, answering a simple question: Should the Broncos pay to keep them or take a pass, letting them head into free agency.
Next up…
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DEREK WOLFE
Defensive End
The Broncos didn’t make a first-round selection in the 2012 NFL Draft. Originally slated to pick at No. 25 overall, Denver chose to pass on Alabama linebacker Dont’a Hightower. They traded with the Patriots, who selected Hightower at 25, and moved down to No.31 overall. When that pick came up, the Broncos traded again – this time with the Buccaneers – and moved out of the first round.
With the No. 36 overall pick, the Broncos selected Derek Wolfe out of the University of Cincinnati. Wolfe was considered to be a value pick at the time as many (including myself) had a first-round grade on the young defensive lineman. I thought Wolfe was a great pick for the Broncos, and he certainly has worked out as one of the best picks this team has had under general manager John Elway.
As a rookie, Wolfe started his NFL career off with a bang, compiling 6.0 sacks in 16 games and snaring 40 total tackles. In his second season, Wolfe only played in 11 games and his numbers were down as a result. In 2014, Wolfe played 16 games again, but his sack total went from 10 in his first two years to just 1.5 that season.
After that, Wolfe was limited to just 12, 14, and 11 games during the next three seasons. He got back to 16 full games in 2018, but still wasn’t getting many sacks (1.5 in the final year under Vance Joseph).
His 2019 season was perhaps the best of his pro career. Wolfe was playing around 45 snaps per game and posted a career-high 7.0 sacks in just 12 games. The injury bug hit him again, however, as Wolfe was put on Injured Reserve with a dislocated elbow he suffered in Week 13. Wolfe was playing some good football, but another season cut short by injury is going to complicate things when considering how to structure a new contract.
Should the Broncos pay or pass? Let’s take a look.
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Positives
Wolfe is coming off arguably his best season as a pro and is a fantastic fit for the Vic Fangio defense. Fit is everything in the NFL and Wolfe proved to be a great fit for what Fangio asks his defensive ends to do.
Wolfe was super excited to work under Fangio and he responded with a high level of play. His tremendous work ethic endeared him to the new coaching staff and the combination was a match made in heaven.
He’s strong at the point of attack and does a good job of keeping contain from the defensive end position. Wolfe doesn’t let plays get outside of him and by turning the action to the inside it helps end plays quicker as he funnels the ball-carrier to his teammates in the middle. He had a great season as a pass-rusher in 2019, and Wolfe does a good job of playing “games” with superstar Von Miller on the outside. Wolfe and Miller have an unspoken bond on the field and they’ll run twists and stunts to create havoc for opposing quarterbacks.
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Negatives
The injury bug has bitten Wolfe quite a few times during his career with the Broncos. In eight NFL seasons, Wolfe has only played a full 16-game season three times.
Wolfe isn’t getting any younger and that will be factored into the decision of whether or not to keep him, as well. In February, Wolfe will turn 30 years old – and that age will be a factor going forward.
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The Market
In 2019, Wolfe had a cap number of $9 million in the final year of his contract. That could be a number he is aiming for once again – especially after his strong play in 2019 – but that total might put him out of the range the Broncos are comfortable with paying.
There is a similar player or similar age to Wolfe that got a two-year, $23 million extension last year with $19.5 million guaranteed. The Bills extended 2010 first-round pick Jerry Hughes last May with that big contract for a 31-year-old veteran. Like Wolfe, Hughes averaged a few sacks per year, but had a 7.0 sack season before his extension.
Unlike Wolfe, Hughes had played in 16 games every season he was with the Bills dating back to 2013. Hughes even played 16 games in 2012, so durability is the name of the game with Hughes. That’s not the case with Wolfe and that’s why the Broncos would be highly unlikely to sign him to a deal like Hughes received.
While the Broncos have been working on a deal with Justin Simmons for some time now, they have yet to begin communication with Wolfe according to my sources.
I've heard some buzz about the #Broncos not yet reaching out to Derek Wolfe. I know he's going to get more interest based on his play from last year, and I want DEN to wrap him up with a friendly deal to keep him around. No talks yet is what I'm told. @1043TheFan
— Cecil Lammey (@CecilLammey) January 29, 2020
The Broncos may just wait for the market to determine Wolfe’s price tag before making him an offer – at least that’s what I believe upon learning the news they haven’t even reached out to his representation yet.
If he does hit the open market, there might be a team like the Cardinals who would have enough interest to pay him more than the Broncos are willing to. It’s a dangerous game if the Broncos do let Wolfe test the waters in free agency.
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The Verdict
The Broncos will pay for future performance – not past performance – and that is the biggest question surrounding the veteran defensive end. What does he have left in the tank? I believe that his fit in this system is too good to pass on, and the games that Wolfe plays with Miller make him a player I want to keep around.
The Broncos need to pay Wolfe.
I have a feeling there will be plenty of people who disagree with my sentiment. I’m not looking back and getting the “feels” because Wolfe has been one of the best draft picks that general manager John Elway has made. Instead, I’m looking forward and considering if Wolfe can stay healthy and what can he still bring to the football field. There is a number I feel the two sides can come to that is beneficial for both parties involved. Wolfe wants to stay in Denver and the Broncos should want to keep a veteran leader like that around for multiple reasons.
