The ceiling for the Broncos this season is 8-8. And that’s not probably not good enough to make the playoffs.
If Denver fails to make the playoffs behind Joe Flacco, John Elway will have to think about drafting one of the top quarterbacks in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft. It’ll be time to turn the page on the “win now” mentality and move into rebuild mode.
Jake Fromm, Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert are all projected first-round picks in next year’s draft and will be on almost every team’s radar in April. Each quarterback has a different style of play to them going from Herbert playing in Oregon’s spread offense to Georgia’s pro offense. If people thought the quarterback draft class was wild in 2018, it will be just as wild next year.
Why don’t the Broncos just move onto Drew Lock if Joe Flacco can’t lead this team to the playoffs? Simple, second-round quarterbacks just don’t have much success. The last five quarterbacks drafted in round No. 2 have yet to start in a playoff game. Since the common draft in 1967, there have been 57 quarterbacks drafted in the second round not counting Drew Lock. Of those gunslingers, only 17 have started in a playoff game. That’s 30 percent!
If the Broncos were sold on Lock, then why didn’t they draft him in the first round?
Of the 53 Super Bowls that have been played, only six quarterbacks drafted in the second round have played on the biggest stage. From those six quarterbacks, Drew Brees, Ken Stabler and Brett Favre are the only second-round quarterbacks to win a Super Bowl.
For comparison, 27 Super Bowls have been won by a first-round quarterbacks. Looking back at the last 20 Super Bowls, 15 have been played with at least one first rounder.
This also doesn’t mean that Denver should just draft one of the top three quarterbacks anywhere in the first round. The worst place to draft a quarterback in the first round is in the 20s. Since 2000, Aaron Rodgers is the only quarterback to win a Super Bowl that was drafted in picks 20-29, and you can argue that his team was carried by his second overall ranked defense.
Unless the Broncos want to wait for another five years to contend for a fourth Lombardi Trophy, they must target one of the dynamic trio of quarterbacks in the 2020 NFL Draft. They must do everything they can to secure one of those top draft picks and that include possibly trading one of their top players.
My projected QB: Jake Fromm
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