An inability to force turnovers has been Broncos biggest defensive issue

The Broncos did it! They got their first win of 2020.

The game was sloppy and the Jets are a trash can of a team, but winning on the road with a third-string quarterback was impressive. Denver’s W was legit.

The most-surprising aspect of the Broncos victory over the Jets was that they managed to win by nine points despite losing the turnover battle 0-3. Brett Rypien threw three interceptions, while the Broncos defense failed to force a turnover.

If the Broncos hope to get their season on track, they need to find a way to force turnovers. So far in 2020, the Broncos have played four games and have forced two turnovers. Those two turnovers both came in the Week 2 game at Pittsburgh. In their other three games, the team failed to force a fumble or interception. The Broncos offense, meanwhile, has given up eight turnovers, leaving the team -6 in turnover differential.

The Steelers game is a primary example of the impact turnovers can have on a game. The Broncos lost quarterback Drew Lock and wide receiver Courtland Sutton in that game. They were down 12 points in the fourth quarter and the Steelers had the ball. But Pittsburgh fumbled and Kareem Jackson recovered. The ball was recovered on the Broncos 46-yard line. The offense only needed 54 yards to score a touchdown. The offense scored, and within two minutes what looked like a lost cause was suddenly a one-score game.

The momentum swung in the Broncos’ favor, and though they came up short, they were in position to win the game. Without the two turnovers, the Steelers game would have been a blowout.

In 2009, the Broncos were playing at Indianapolis against Peyton Manning and the Colts. The Colts would eventually play in the Super Bowl that season. The Broncos fell down 21-0 early in the game. Late in the second half, the Broncos were able to get close with a score of 21-16. This comeback was possible because the defense somehow found a way to intercept three of Manning’s passes. The Broncos did end up losing the game, however, even against a Super Bowl team, an underdog can stay in the game if they find ways to take the ball from the opposing offense.

Week 1 this season against the Titans, the Broncos jumped out to a 7-0 lead and looked to be in control of the game. After forcing the Titans to punt, the offense was in position to give the Broncos a 14-0 or 10-0 lead. Then, Melvin Gordon fumbled and gave the momentum to the Titans. The Titans recovered on the Broncos’ 23-yard line, so they were working with a very short field. What looked to be a potential double-digit lead for the Broncos was suddenly a tie game. The Broncos would go on to lose that game.

Both the Titans and Steelers games are examples of how one or two turnovers can quickly change the entire trajectory of a game.

When Vic Fangio was hired as Broncos head coach, part of the excitement on the hiring centered around his 2018 Bears defense forcing 36 turnovers. In 20 games as Broncos head coach, Fangio’s defense has forced just a little more than half of that.

In 2019, the Broncos defense forced turnovers in only three of the first eight games. Their record was 2-6. In their final eight games, the Broncos defense forced turnovers in six of the eight games; their record in that stretch was 5-3.

The Broncos most dominant win of the last two seasons was last season’s victory over the Texans. They were able to pull away in that game because they forced three turnovers, including one that led to a defensive score.

The Fangio defense has not lived up to the hype in regard to turnovers. This defense so far under Fangio has been too conservative. Except for the game against the Houston Texans in 2019, I struggle to name five memorable defensive plays in the last two seasons.

The defensive focus appears to be “not to lose” rather than “win.” The conservative approach has worked to an extent, but generally the opposing offense finds a way to breakthrough. The late-game collapses have been glaring because the defense has failed to be timely with big plays, specifically generating turnovers.

The defense is far too talented and Fangio too good of a play caller for the Broncos to have been struggling with turnovers to the level that they have. The Broncos have truly elite talent at multiple positions and should be shifting the momentum of games more consistently.

It would be incorrect to say the 2020 Broncos defense has been bad. The defense kept the team in the Steelers game, only gave up three second half points to the Buccaneers and came up with a big sack on fourth down to end the Jets game. It would be fair to say this 2020 Broncos defense has been ineffective for long stretches. “Bend but don’t break” only works if you’re getting turnovers, which as of today, they are not.

The victory over the Jets was promising in that Fangio and defensive coordinator Ed Donatell dialed up blitzes throughout the game. They were able to make Jets quarterback Sam Darnold uncomfortable throughout the game. Michael Ojemudia and De’Vante Bausby both let interceptions slip their hands.

If Fangio and Donatell can call an aggressive defense like they did in New York, this defense may start to reach its full potential. If they don’t, another losing season is guaranteed.