Broncos fantasy football outlook 2020: Running back Phillip Lindsay
Jun 3, 2020, 6:47 AM
The Broncos have made moves after moves this offseason to add weapons to the offense. This has made Broncos Country incredibly excited about what this offense could be in 2020.
Fans of the Broncos had to sit through a poor offense last year that scored just 17 points a game. This year, the Broncos could score around 24 points per game – a difference of a touchdown per game from the previous season.
Only 12 teams in the NFL scored 24 or more points in 2019. For the Broncos to make that jump into the 24-PPG club, the new pieces on offense will have to play at a high level. This would be good news for Broncos fans, but it would also be good news for fantasy football GMs.
With fantasy football drafts going on right now, (yes, this early) it’s interesting to note how the fantasy community is looking at the 2020 Broncos. In this series, we’ll look at the current ADP (average draft position) in 12-team PPR leagues for the Broncos offensive players at Footballguys.com. For those of you that don’t know, I have worked for Footballguys.com since 2005 and it’s where you can find all my fantasy football opinions.
Today, we look at Broncos running back Phillip Lindsay. Where is he going in drafts, and what is the reasoning behind his ADP?
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Phillip Lindsay | RB42 | 9.04
There are a lot of fantasy GMs out there who don’t know what to think of Lindsay’s outlook for the 2020 season. After back-to-back 1,000-yard rushing seasons, Lindsay has been replaced as the top back for the Broncos.
In free agency, the team signed Melvin Gordon to a two-year, $16 million contract. Meanwhile, Lindsay is still working on his rookie contract which as a former undrafted free agent is peanuts compared to what Gordon is making.
He’s currently going off the board as the No. 42 fantasy running back in the ninth round (fourth pick) in 12-team PPR leagues. That is a low spot and it might be based on the history of new offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur.
During his years of coaching offenses, Shurmur has mostly run a one-back system. Whether it was Steven Jackson (Rams), Trent Richardson (Browns) or Saquon Barkley (Giants), starting running backs under Shurmur get a heavy workload. In the meantime, the backup running backs barely see the field.
Fantasy GMs could warm up to Lindsay as the regular season draws closer. It all depends on what we see and hear when training camp gets here. Gordon is the lead back, but if it looks like Lindsay will be more than a normal second-string running back under Shurmur, then his ADP should rise.
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Last Year’s Comparison
In 2019, the No. 42 fantasy player at the position was Gus Edwards from the Baltimore Ravens. Last season working as a backup to Mark Ingram, Edwards ran 133 times for 711 yards and two rushing touchdowns. Edwards was barely used as a receiver in 2019, catching only seven passes for 45 yards.
It’s easy to project that Lindsay will get more work both as a runner and receiver out of the backfield – even if he is the backup to Gordon. We have to look no further than the No. 40 fantasy running back last year, Lindsay’s backup – Royce Freeman. Yes, that was a different offense, but Lindsay is more talented than Freeman and should be able to do more with that No. 2 job in 2020 behind Gordon.
The fair numbers to project Lindsay to reach this year is around 150 carries for 650 yards with around four touchdowns. If he proves himself to be an improved receiver out of the backfield, Lindsay could snare around 30 passes for 190 yards and one touchdown. If that’s the case, then Lindsay would be a RB3 for fantasy GMs and have plenty of flex appeal in 2020.
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Overvalued or Undervalued?
There is little chance that Lindsay is overvalued at his current ADP. Simply put, Lindsay is just too talented to be deemed a “normal” No. 2 running back.
In 2017, when Shurmur was the offensive coordinator for the Vikings, he used two backs due to an injury to starter Dalvin Cook. That season, Latavius Murray was the leading ball-carrier, but he was used in tandem with Jerick McKinnon. This season, Gordon would have to be considered the Murray-like back, while Lindsay could play the McKinnon role.
When Shurmur used two backs with the Vikings, Murray finished as the No. 21 fantasy running back with 842 rushing yards, eight rushing touchdowns and 102 receiving yards. That same year, McKinnon finished as the No. 24 fantasy running back with 570 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns, 421 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns. McKinnon did have 51 catches that year, and that’s around 20 more than I feel comfortable projecting for Lindsay.
Another thing Fantasy GMs must consider is the injury history of Gordon. He’s only completed one full, 16-game regular season in his pro career. If he gets banged up again in 2020, then Lindsay could take over and provide RB1 value for fantasy GMs. That’s something that gives him a bit more value than most RB4s in fantasy leagues. At the beginning of the ninth round, Lindsay has great upside if things break the right way for him.
