Broncos vs. Bills: Breaking down Denver’s game plan on Sunday

The Broncos fell short on the road last week against the Vikings, but they were not blown out. Instead, Denver got out to a 20-0 lead, only to see their victory evaporate in the final quarter. Against a tough Minnesota team, the Broncos proved they are a tougher “out” than some might think of a team with a 3-7 record.

On Sunday, the Broncos are back on the road, this time traveling east to face the Bills. Buffalo is a team that seems bound for the playoffs with a record of 7-3 after 10 games. However, they are not unbeatable and the Broncos could be a team that gives them another loss in 2019.

Let’s take a look at how the Broncos will attack the Bills on both sides of the ball.

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When the Broncos Run the Ball

The Broncos win this game if they stay committed to running the ball. They need to feed Phillip Lindsay as much as possible when going up against the Bills. The Broncos had been featuring Royce Freeman more during the last month and he was getting more snaps than Lindsay, but that wasn’t the case last week against the Vikings. In fact, Lindsay played a season-high 64 percent of the snaps last week and that needs to continue going forward – especially this week against a Bills run defense that has been struggling.

Lindsay is a smaller back, but he can live in between the tackles. In fact, that’s where he can excel as he “gets skinny” between the tackles and then can turn on the speed when he gets to the linebacker level of the defense.

The Bills rush defense was strong last week, but that was against a bad Dolphins rushing attack. In the four games prior to Week 11, the Bills had given up 95 rushing yards or more to three different running backs. The Bills have given up the third-most amount of carries (nine) that go for 20 yards or more. This is a real opportunity for Lindsay to break off at least one big run and lead the way on the ground for the Broncos.

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When the Broncos Pass the Ball

The matchup of Courtland Sutton versus Tre’Davious White will be one worthy of getting your popcorn ready. Sutton is a rising star in this league and I believe he is a top-10 wide receiver in terms of talent, and certainly in terms of production. White might be one of the best cornerbacks in the game today and he can regularly shut down No. 1 wide receivers on a weekly basis.

Broncos quarterback Brandon Allen shows no fear in terms of attacking downfield and he’s not a “captain checkdown” player like Trevor Siemian was for the Broncos years ago. Allen is a nice backup and spot starter, but his completion percentage and pass placement is all over the place. Several throws against the Vikings missed the mark or were too high for his receivers to catch cleanly and maximize run-after-the-catch yardage.

Last week, the Broncos had more than just Sutton to attack a defensive secondary. Tim Patrick played for the first time since Week 1 and gathered in four catches for 77 yards in Week 11. With White all over Sutton, Patrick needs to have a big game when the Broncos want to go through the air. Sutton can make plays on the outside and so can Sutton.

Against the Bills, however, perhaps the team should try to get some quick slant routes to get Patrick the ball over the middle where his size and strength can help him make big plays.

The Bills only allow 217 passing yards per game, third-fewest in the league. They have the pass rush up front to get after the quarterback and the Bills have a rotation of players to keep defenders fresh.

In addition to White at cornerback, the Bills have two safeties in Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer who help keep big plays from happening over the top. The Bills defense has tied for allowing the third-fewest pass plays of 40 yards or more (three) and the second-fewest pass plays of 20-plus yards (21). While you can get big plays against the Bills with your ground game, the passing attack is going to have a tougher day when it comes to creating explosive plays.

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When the Bills Run the Ball

The Bills have one of my favorite rookie running backs this year in Devin Singletary. They picked him up in the third round of the 2019 NFL Draft out of Florida Atlantic. During his final season at FAU, Singletary had more than 1,000 yards rushing after contact and his balance as a runner is outstanding.

He’s not a burner by any means, but Singletary does have the same MPH (miles per hour) when he hits the line of scrimmage as Lindsay (10.56 MPH). Singletary doesn’t have long speed, but he does waste little time as a runner and has great vision when running the ball.

The Bills rank No. 8 in the league with a rushing attack that averages 128.7 rushing yards per game. In addition to Singletary, the Bills have veteran Frank Gore as a valuable reserve player. They also have one of the best rushing quarterbacks in the league with second-year pro Josh Allen. He’s rushed for at least 25 yards in all but two games this year and the big-bodied quarterback is one to game plan against.

The Broncos rush defense shut down superstar Dalvin Cook last week, allowing just 26 yards on 11 carries. Part of that performance was the Broncos offense getting to a lead as the Vikings basically abandoned the run after halftime. We’ll see if Denver can jump out to a lead like that against the Bills but it seems doubtful.

We’ll also see if Allen is the player who can break down the discipline the Broncos rush defense has been playing with since inserting defensive tackle Mike Purcell and inside linebacker Alexander Johnson into the starting lineup. The Broncos have yet to allow a rushing touchdown to a quarterback but they will be tested by Allen and the Bills rushing attack.

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When the Bills Pass the Ball

The Bills want to run the ball as much as possible. When they do go through the air, they sometimes feature Allen’s big arm and throw passes downfield to speedy veteran John Brown. We’ll see Chris Harris Jr. on Brown at times, but as we saw last week against Stefon Diggs, Harris does not just follow around the No. 1 receiver. There will be times when Harris is on another player and Brown is facing Devontae Harris. The Broncos have to be careful not to allow a big play in that scenario.

Allen’s game has transformed this year, especially since the team’s Week 6 bye. Since that time, Allen has thrown zero interceptions and eight touchdowns. Turnovers were a problem for Allen before the bye, but he’s been safe (and dangerous) with the ball since that break.

The Broncos pass defense has been one of the best parts of the team in 2019. They rank No. 5 in the league by allowing an average of just 210.3 passing yards per game. The Bills offensive line is mediocre at best, so the pass rush for Denver should be able to put Allen under pressure early and often. Allen is a scrambler but he is not as adept at the “second play” when passing the ball on the run.

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Summary

The Broncos have a better-than-expected chance to win this game. Yes, it’s on the road in a hostile environment. Yes, it’s an early start on the East Coast. Yes, the Broncos gain nothing (and in fact lose quite a bit) by winning this game.

I get all that.

However, it’s tough to tell this group of competitors not to play hard. The Bills can be beat if they contain Allen and don’t let Brown slip by them for a big play. The Broncos can win if they stay true to the rushing attack and limit the number of passes that Allen throws in Week 12.

I’ve got the Broncos by a score of 17-13 on Sunday.

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All quotes and injury/practice observations obtained firsthand. Record/statistical information provided via email from the Denver Broncos unless otherwise noted. Game screenshots from NFL Game Pass. Contract and salary-cap information provided by Spotrac.com. Transaction history provided by ProSportsTransactions.com.

Follow @CecilLammey