Evans: The Denver Broncos, Gary Kubiak, and blackjack
Nov 29, 2016, 5:39 PM | Updated: 9:40 pm
Ever since I came out and said I dis-agreed with Denver Broncos head coach Gary Kubiak’s decision to try a 62-yard field goal in overtime against the Kansas City Chiefs, I’ve been bombarded with the “he played to win” defense.
Even John Elway joined the chorus.
I get it. It sounds good. Sounds tough. Macho.
But it isn’t smart. There lies the difference.
If anyone has ever played blackjack, there are certain rules to follow. If you’re sitting on 18, you’re not going to hit. You could. It would be aggressive. You would be “playing to win.” But, it wouldn’t be smart.
That was Kubiak’s decision. He was being aggressive alright. He was playing to win. But he wasn’t being smart.
Let’s start with the kick. Brandon McManus has never made that long of a kick. Kubiak was quick to say Monday that McManus has made that kick many times before — in practice. Never in a game. Not in a mid-30 degrees weather in front of 76,000 fans and millions more on television.
NBC’s Michele Tafoya said McManus told her before the game his range was 60 yards. Not 62, 60. You have to believe McManus knew this was at his limit or beyond it. It was evident in the kick. He hit the ground and pulled it. Take it from a hack golfer like myself, when you try and muscle up on an iron you tend to chunk your club and hook it.
Next was the consequences of the missed kick. The ball was given to Kansas City at the Denver 48-yard line. Now, if this were a Broncos defense that had been throttling the Chiefs, it would’ve been worth the gamble. But this was a defense that had allowed Alex Smith to morph into Tom Brady on the final drive of regulation. And again on a game tying 2-point conversion. And again on the overtime field goal drive that tied the game at 27.
The point is, the Chiefs offense was in a groove, and there was very little evidence to suggest the Broncos would stop them. Giving Kansas City the ball at the 48-yard line was basically gifting them the chance to kick the game-winning field goal.
Kubiak said one of the reasons he didn’t want to punt the ball was because he didn’t want the Chiefs to get the ball back. Again, I don’t buy that. In all likelihood, Riley Dixon pooches a punt that is downed inside the Kansas City 20-yard line. There was only a minute left in overtime. At that point, Chiefs coach Andy Reid is more than content to take the tie on the road and get out of town.
Finally, there is the line of thinking that Kubiak tried for the field goal because he wanted to send the message that he believed in his team. Really? After everything this team went through last year in winning the Super Bowl you don’t think Kubiak has built credibility and the belief among his players that he believes in them? One is not giving this team enough credit to think they’re so mentally fragile that they would take playing for the tie as a blow to their tender psyches.
I get it. Nobody likes a tie. But right now the Broncos are tied with the Miami Dolphins and, because of tie-breakers, are out of the playoffs. With a tie, they’re ahead of the Dolphins. Big deal right there.
Also, for the time being, the Broncos appear to be living in Wild Card World. Once you’re in that pool with a half-dozen teams, that tie can turn out to be very beneficial when it comes to playoff tie-breakers.
Trying the field goal was a lot of things. Smart wasn’t one of them.
